Saturday, February 6, 2010

Wall Street meets The Strip?



Article about sports betting and bond market techniques, and how they are coming together to form live sports beting using bond market risk management techniques.


Cantor Fitzgerald Takes Wall Street Trading Software to Las Vegas - WSJ.com






Thursday, February 4, 2010

University Endowment Losses

CNBC had a list of the Largest 2009 Endowment Losses (out of the 250 largest universities):

15. Principia College: -28% ($206 MM)

14. Univesity of St. Thomas : -28.16% ($98.8 MM)

13. Florida State Univesity: -28.22% ($161 MM)

12. Yale Univesrity: -28.6% ($6.5 B)

11. Fuller Theological Seminary: -29.1% ($123 MM)

10. Carnegie Mellon: -29.4% ($313 MM)

9. Harvard Univesity: -29.8% ($10.9 B)

8. Farnklin W. Olin College: -30% ($141 MM)

7. Bates College: -31.2% ($83 MM)

6. Samford University: -31.22% ($96 MM)

5. Ithaca College: -31.7% ($75 MM)

4. Regent Univesrity: -31.9% ($87 MM)

3. Baylor College of Medicine: -33% ($360 MM)

2. Syracuse University: -33.2% ($327 MM)

1. Haverford College: -35.5% ($185 MM)


As a Portfolio Manager, this makes me feel good about what we are doing. In 2009, we had a great market rally, and even the smartest of people predicted it was going the other way. In 2009, none of our portfolios that we run lost money, yet these teams were losing 1/3 of theirs.

Tuesday, February 2, 2010

Regulations



This from the Upside Trader:

"Maybe oil companies are next because they make too much loot or maybe some of the food companies will get levied because they are putting too many chocolate chips in their cookies. The markets hate regulation of any kind, they especially hate regulation on a sector that we just threw hundreds of billions at to try and save and then months later try and tear down. Counter intuitive at best. It causes confusion, markets hate confusion."

The January Indicator

This is a chart of the January indicator. This theory hypothesizes that when January finishes in positive territory, and vice versa. I do not buy into this theory whatsoever as there are many other factors that drive markets. If you look back at the last 10 years 6 time the theory has held true, 4 times it hasn't. Now looking back further, it seems as though it is right more often, but I think it is wise to only consider the recent pieces of data, as those are the economic conditions most similar to ours today.

Friday, January 29, 2010

Which Default is more Troublesome?

Lots of talk about Greece's debt problems, which would you rather have?

Reasons for Unemployment

We all know those people that got laid off and now choose to stay at home, not looking for a job, or becoming a mother, but still technically (as the numbers go) unemployed. This charts breaks down the numbers behind unemployment.

Tuesday, January 26, 2010

Earnings: Looking good?



So far earnings this quarter have been looking great considering our environment, right?

Wrong. While the bottom line of net profit may be looking tasty and better than it has in a long time, that is due to the cutting of jobs. We need remember that among this media spin of good profits, is the fact that the top line items (sales) have been shrinking.

Just a reminder that it is good to look at the company's financial position, and how they got there, not just the bottom line.

Here's is a little piece from The Reformed Broker:

I run a fairly sizable brokerage and advisory business. I could fire my staff and cut off the research products I subscribe to and only commute to work 4 days a week instead of 5 and stop wining and dining prospective clients and drop the amount of states I do business in to lower registration fees. And yes, my take home pay would look much improved at first. But then what? How can I grow my book of business if I've gutted it of the raw materials and resources it needs to get bigger?

The answer is I cannot, and as my revenues decline, my juicy margins from all that expense trimming are sure to fade along with them. And then no one is happy, especially not the wife or her salesgirl at Bloomingdales.

The meeting of temporary profitability targets may earn execs their bonuses and make for good headlines, but at some point, you aren't aren't just cutting fat - you're chopping into the muscle itself that you need to walk the next mile.